Live Limited Surprises will Dominate Content from 2020 Onward: An Introduction

Consider the types of content currently popular on the web, Netflix, and TV: music, sports, video games, and celebrity content. Currently, most (but not all) are created in a scheduled way, where fans are used to content being dropped on certain days (e.g., game starts at 7PM: album drop is September 21^st: etc.). In addition, most are readily available to the public at free or near-free levels, maximizing eyeballs for the sake of ad revenue. Finally, the content is available for long periods of time after release. It often was carefully scripted and designed by some kind of director or coordinator so that only the very best edition was released to the public.

Yet, I’m predicting that this current model is a relic of a technologically underpowered era, and is suffering from staleness. The enabling technologies and ideologies needed to fuel the live, limited surprise are currently here. They include the following:

• 5G technology enabling the near seamless distribution of video to cell phones, thus enabling live content to scale and be seen as a real competitor to streaming. Thus live content (such as HQ Trivia) can be seen simultaneously and synchronously.
• Payment technology lowering the transaction cost for micro-transactions, thus allowing buyers of content to buy ever smaller slices of customized or live content without needing to resort to bundles, and sellers thus able to handle more frequent, small transactions without profit margins being crushed by transaction costs. This creates the possibility of a business model that doesn’t have to rely on ad revenue and maximum eyeballs.
• Improved technology for moderating live content, thus allowing companies to enable widespread livestreaming of content with AI moderators. This reduces the need for human moderators and limits the chances that live crime will happen via a site (e.g., broadcast violence, etc.). There are sociopolitical legitimacy barriers that have held back live content, and understandably so. This technology will also help the LLS content-producers in making sure that their content is not shared on other social media sites. Such sophisticated video analysis will protect the revenue stream from piracy and give the LLS content-producers (and the websites who specialize in this) more control.
• Deepfake technology that will increasingly fuel a desire for “real” unedited video that can be proven to be authentic and realistic rather than heavily edited in misleading fashion. When (not if) the backlash against heavy editing and unreality occurs, LLS may be best suited to benefit. It’s however also possible that augmented reality will become so sophisticated that LLS will not fix this issue.
• Intensifying experience culture and FOMO, thus fueling a desire for unique micro-targeted content that meets the needs of superfans, yet doesn’t interrupt the content provider’s relationship with their larger base. Naturally, some of this depends on the continued growth of Twitter and other real-time commenting communities.

There’s a big difference between saying something CAN be done and that something WILL be done. Why will the old system change? I’ll give examples from the main content sources listed above and explain how it’s already changing in plain sight. I’ll do my best to prove that this change may happen even if the Google search engine/YT content and Facebook advertising duopoly are not at all affected by legislation or disrupted. I’ll also even assume that this won’t just happen because of current large players: for example, I do believe that Amazon is a natural LLS competitor to leverage live content (Hello Twitch!) and micro transactions (connected to Prime) as a competitive weapon on the Google/Facebook ad dollars duopoly.

I’ll argue each of my points separately, being well aware that my vision for all three may be too extreme. However, as you read my ideas, you should naturally be able to see ways how the three support each other. For example, providing content to a limited audience thus creates a need to justify higher prices and standards, besides just the customization for that limited audience. Interaction and variety needs can then be met via moving to live and surprise content. I’ll also do my best to use simple language and terms, admitting that I don’t claim to be a research-level expert in this particular area. I welcome feedback and comments.